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Changing retail market prompts Eurotank restructure

“Independent fuel retailers don’t want to invest in their own engineering department or facilities management so we provide that service,” says Ian Jacques, the recently appointed group commercial director at the  Eurotank Service Group On 1st August, Eurotank will move to a new group structure in response to changes in the fuel retailing industry and sustained growth outside of the company’s core business in tank maintenance. “With oil companies divesting sites we needed a structure that allowed us to meet the needs of our growing independent dealer customer base,” said Edward Wheeler, group managing director of Eurotank Service Group. Eurotank Environmental, Eurotank Systems, Eurotank Construction and Eurotank Ireland will then come under the umbrella company, Eurotank Service Group. Eurotank Environmental will continue to operate within the core business of tank maintenance and specialist related services. Eurotank’s pump & payment system service division has been merged with Eurotank’s reactive maintenance & vapour recovery system service engineering team and will operate as Eurotank Systems. The construction and installation division now operates as Eurotank Construction, while Eurotank Ireland remains its own entity, providing all of the services offered across the group. “It was critical to us that the independent retailers feel that they’re only dealing with one entity, which is Eurotank,” added Wheeler. “One of our strengths as a business is that we’re a single point of contact for customers. A good example of this is with our pump service contracts, where we maintain pumps, install new pumps, carry out vapour recovery testing, repair manholes, clean tanks and generally maintain the forecourt for customers. The restructure also sees the appointment of Ian Jacques as group commercial director. The former managing director of Scheidt & Bachmann UK has worked closely with Eurotank since 2012, following the formation of the Eurotank/S&B partnership, which saw Eurotank become the service and installation arm of S&B in the UK and Ireland. Eurotank Systems is now the commercial agent and distributer for S&B’s range of dispensers and payment systems in the UK & Irish markets, as well as its field-based technician support.www.eurotank.eu.com

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Gulf to fuel the Layer Marney Cup

The Layer Marney Cup is an ideal event for Gulf to be associated with says Steve White, general manager for Gulf Oil Next month, Gulf Oil will be supporting the historic Layer Marney Cup, a car fuel consumption trial first run 101 years ago in 1914. “This is an ideal event for Gulf to be associated with,” said Steve White, general manager for Gulf Oil. “This event – and the people and vehicles participating – truly reflects the Gulf strap line Quality, Endurance, Passion.” An impressive selection of cars produced during the last century will take part in the competition on Sunday 16 August. The first re-run of a unique event which took place during the dawn of motoring will see the cars drive through the Stow Maries Aerodrome – the UK’s only First World War airport still in use.  With some WW1 aircraft based there, the airport has recently been recreated to look as it would have done during the war and, if the weather is kind that day, spectators may also witness some aircraft practising their displays. At the Gulf branded forecourt McCreadies of Layer Marney tanks will be unsealed and checked for fuel consumption. “The event will be a visual delight for spectators, whether car enthusiasts or not,” said Sheila Charrington from Layer Marney Tower. “For the younger generation it will be a real eye opener and a lesson in history.  The world of fuel and motor racing has changed exponentially in the last 100 years, which will be demonstrated through the classes taking part in the competition.” For more information contact Sheila Charrington on Sheila@layermarneytower.co.uk.www.gulfoil.co.uk

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Safety wheel nut – new devlopments

New owners TCB are looking forward to further developing the Disc-Lock business The European distributor of the Disc-Lock safety wheel nut, Disc-Lock Europe has been acquired by UK owned Tension Control Bolts. Wrexham-based Tension Control Bolts (TCB) manufactures and distributes high strength, bolted systems for applications world wide. From bridge splice plates to beam-to-column connections and stadia roof trusses to rail switches and crossings, the projects of this fast growing company have included the Channel Tunnel Rail Link, the Shard of Glass in London, Heathrow Airport – Terminal Five, the main stadia for the London 2012 Olympics and Paddington Station, London. On 1st July, TCB senior sales engineer Gary Mason assumed the day-to-day running of Disc-Lock Europe from TCB House in Wrexham. Bob Hope, chairman of Disc-Lock Europe said: “After 28 years, I’m delighted to be stepping down as chairman and handing the reins to TCB, a world leader in the field of bolted systems.  As Disc-Lock Europe will continue to operate in its own right as a company, existing customers will not encounter any disruption to the normal service.  Indeed, I will continue to be involved for the foreseeable future to ensure a smooth transfer of responsibilities.” Tim Stokes, TCB managing director added:  “We’re very pleased to have acquired Disc-Lock Europe.  Its range of Disc-Lock washers, nuts and wheel nuts provide a perfect match with our own existing product range.” www.tcbolts.com

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AGA Rangemaster to be sold

The AGA portfolio includes AGA, Rangemaster, Mercury, Falcon, Marvel, Stanley and La Cornue. Headquartered in Leamington Spa, AGA has approximately $400 million in annual revenues and more than 2,500 employees worldwide Subject to the approval of its shareholders the AGA Rangemaster Group is to be acquired by the US Middleby Corporation for £129.2 million. Once the deal is completed later this year, the US firm has said it would carry out a strategic review of operations but was planning to keep AGA’s manufacturing in the UK. “The addition of AGA’s world class brands, product range and manufacturing capability to our existing portfolio will further strengthen Middleby’s global reach and enhance our position as a leader in the premium segment for residential kitchen equipment,” said Middleby’s chairman and CEO Selim A. Bassoul. “We believe this transaction will provide meaningful synergies as we build upon the combined strengths of both Middleby and AGA. We will leverage the existing sales, service and manufacturing capabilities of AGA with the Middleby market expertise, product innovation and well established global distribution network.” Last year, AGA announced a fall in profits mainly because of pension costs, shop closures and site rationalisation, although revenues rose. Middleby will finance the transaction under its current $1.0 billion revolving credit facility. The transaction is expected to close in the third quarter, subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals.www.agarangemaster.comwww.middleby.com

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Industry professionals debate heating strategies

Heating industry professionals favour ‘a more gradual stepped approach to low carbon heating which would be far more palatable for consumers’ says Jeremy Hawksley According to the results of a poll held at OFTEC’s annual conference last month, over three-quarters of those questioned were looking towards hybrid heating systems, with oil working in tandem with renewable technologies. A further 16% said a shift to bio-liquid fuels such as OFTEC’s B30K, a blend of 30% FAME and 70% kerosene, would be a likely move. Almost three quarters of the heating industry professionals who attended also think the government’s 2050 Heat Strategy is unrealistic. The survey of more than 50 industry leaders, manufacturers and technicians found that 70% felt DECC’s Heat Strategy, published earlier this year, would result in less than half of the UK domestic heating market coming from renewable sources by 2050.  It will also fall far short of its target to achieve an 80% reduction in UK carbon emissions from 1990 levels by 2050. A further 67% of those polled said the domestic Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scheme in its current form is the wrong vehicle to move UK homes to renewable heat. An overwhelming 98% also said heat pumps were not a realistic alternative to oil-fired boilers for retrofit properties without significant – and costly – upgrades to insulation and controls. Commenting on the results, OFTEC director general Jeremy Hawksley said: “Cynically you could say that an audience with a keen interest in oil would take the opportunity to knock the government’s Heat Strategy and renewable technologies. “However, OFTEC members fully support the UK’s transition to low carbon heat and recognise the increasing role domestic renewable heating technologies will play in the longer term. That’s why OFTEC has launched registrations and MCS certification for heat pumps and solar thermal systems, with biomass to follow later this year. OFTEC has again called for a more pragmatic approach and continues to lobby for an alternative approach, including a simple boiler scrappage scheme. With sales of new oil condensing boilers so far this year up 9% on 2014 levels, there is clearly a strong demand and an opportunity to make considerable carbon savings. Heating industry professionals favour ‘a more gradual stepped approach to low carbon heating which would be far more palatable for consumers’ says Jeremy Hawksley  with hybrid systems and bio-fuels representing a more affordable, half-way house solution for many.

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Is it time Northern Ireland had a competent persons scheme?

The Northern Ireland Fire and Rescue Service is still investigating the cause of the oil tank fire which caused extensive damage to three housesPic Colm Lenaghan/Pacemaker Following a serious oil tank fire that caused extensive damage to three houses in Dunmurry, just outside Belfast, OFTEC is asking is it time Northern Ireland had a competent persons scheme similar to that currently operating in England and Wales? Reported in the July issue of Fuel Oil News (pages 4 and 21), the fire is believed to have started in a shed before spreading to an oil tank which ruptured, setting fire to other oil tanks in the near vicinity. Meanwhile, OFTEC is calling on the Northern Ireland government to introduce mandatory registration for all oil and boiler installers, following the example of the competent persons scheme in England and Wales. This will give householders more security, knowing that their appliances and oil tanks have been installed by a qualified person and they meet building control regulations. David Blevings, OFTEC said: “Oil tank fires have the potential to be extremely dangerous and, as sadly highlighted in this case, to substantially damage properties. We know that oil is a very safe fuel if stored correctly and the best way to protect yourself and others is to make sure your oil tank and any fuel burning appliances are installed correctly, and inspected and serviced by an OFTEC registered technician at least once a year.” “OFTEC is reminding householders that registered technicians will check all oil appliances and oil tanks during annual boiler service visits to minimise the risk of such incidents. All tanks should be checked and advice given on how to comply with current building regulations in terms of fire safety and environmental protection. OFTEC technicians are reminded that if the recommended separation distances cannot be met, you can advise consumers to place a fire safety panel(s) that provide a minimum 30-minute fire-resistant wall which extends at least 300mm above and beyond the ends of an oil tank.”www.oftec.org.ukwww.nifrs.org

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Transforming Grangemouth

Europe’s biggest ethane tank – INEOS has also built two brand new import terminals to receive the gas, one at Grangemouth and the other at Rafnes in Norway Earlier this month a 330 tonne roof was placed on Europe’s biggest ethane tank.  The move means that INEOS is on schedule for the first US ethane to arrive in Grangemouth during the second half of 2016. The £450m investment into the ethane project represents part of a rescue package for Grangemouth. Part of a $1 billion dollar global project, spanning China, the US and Europe – all to bring ethane to Grangemouth and Norway – it will transform the Grangemouth petrochemicals business and provide a secure supply of essential ethane for the next 15 years. In a remarkable feat of engineering, the 330 tonne roof was floated up almost 150 feet on nothing more than a cushion of air. The tank, which is 56 metres in diameter and 44 metres high, is designed to hold over 60,000 cubic metres of ethane brought from the US to replace declining North Sea supply. “This is an important day for Grangemouth. It takes us one step nearer our goal of importing US ethane to Scotland and putting Grangemouth back into the premier league of petrochemical plants,” said INEOS O&P UK’s chief executive John McNally. The project will transform Grangemouth overnight and will allow its manufacturing assets to once more compete globally, providing raw materials for thousands of manufacturing businesses across the UK and Europe. The building of Europe’s largest ethane storage tank is just part of INEOS’ $1 billion global project to get US shale gas to Europe. The company, which has contracts to access a 100-mile pipeline from the Marcellus Shale in western Pennsylvania to the Marcus Hook gas terminal close to Philadelphia, has commissioned eight huge Dragon class ships to carry the liquefied shale gas ethane from the US to Europe.www.ineos.com

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Suttons strengthens UK team with new appointment

Greg Lofts – “a supply chain specialist whose consultative approach supports Suttons’ ability to provide customers with the service that is right for them and their business” Greg Lofts has been appointed business development director at Suttons Tankers, as the company looks to further strengthen its UK leadership team and expand the products and services it provides to customers. Greg joins Suttons with an impressive track record in business development and account management, most recently at Wincanton. His remit includes the strategic development of the division’s new business opportunities and existing accounts in the bulk chemicals, gases, fuels and food sectors, with a focus on relationship management and customer service. “Greg’s experience and proven ability to lead teams and deliver solutions tailored to individual customers, rather than applying a one size fits all model, is key to the development of our business and an ideal fit with Suttons,” said Michael Cundy, managing director,  Suttons Tankers. “He’s a supply chain specialist whose consultative approach supports Suttons’ ability to provide customers with the service that is right for them and their business.” “Suttons is an ambitious business with a dynamic leadership team who I have admired for a long time,” said Greg. “They have a rich history and continue to move forward at great pace.” “In addition to focusing on both new and existing customers and their requirements, I will work closely with our highly experienced and dedicated teams to deliver value adding innovative world class solutions.” “It is this commitment which will further cement our position as industry leaders in specialist bulk logistics and supply chain services.”www.suttonsgroup.com

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ADR-ready in Inverness

Iain Duncan, general manager at Scania Inverness with Nicola Clase, Sweden’s ambassador to the UK and Claes Jacobsson, managing director Scania GB Following an 18-month development project, Scania has opened a new £3m state of the art premises at Bridge Point in Inverness. Scania Inverness, which is ADR-ready, plans to include the addition of tank testing and Petroleum Regulations work in order to serve the local fuel supply industry. The 1.8 acre site with a high security, CCTV-monitored truck parking area offers two full length pits, an DVSA Authorised Test Facility with brake tester, beam setter and shaker plate, a rolling road, tachograph bay and steam cleaning equipment.  The workshop provides extended opening hours and a fully stocked parts department provides components for all makes of trucks and related equipment, including trailers, tail-lifts and refrigerators.  In total, £400,000 of the £3m Scania Inverness investment has been channelled into workshop equipment and special tooling. In addition to new vehicle sales, the branch offers used truck sales and a full vehicle rental service through Scania Truck Rental. “The staff we have at Scania Inverness are very much our most important asset,” says Sandy Millar, regional executive director for Scania Scotland.  “Compliance is a key issue for operators today, and the complexity of modern vehicles mean that only technicians with the very best training and access to the latest advanced diagnostic and maintenance technology are capable of reliably carrying out work to the standards required by legislation.” “As home to a wide and diverse range of transport operations, and with many local operators traditionally favouring the Scania marque, the Inverness area has long been an important location for us,” comments Claes Jacobsson, managing director of Scania (Great Britain) Limited. www.scania.co.uk

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Team support at Brogan Fuels

The Falkirk team, which is named after the silverback gorilla, hopes the connection with such a powerful species will resonate in their performance during the coming season Brogan Fuels has agreed a two-year sponsorship deal with the Falkirk Silverbacks Australian Rules football team “It’s important that we support clubs in the area where we work, which we try to do where we can,” said Brogan Fuels general manager Gerry Paice.

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Space saving equipment for tanker trucks

Easy to fit and install – user friendly equipment from Emco Wheaton with Euro 6 compatibility The implications of Euro 6 regulations on the road tanker industry have presented many challenges for fleet operators. With additional space required for the Euro 6 exhaust gas system and AdBlue tanks, the implications are not just in terms of the increased vehicle/equipment costs and the impact on payload but also the increased maintenance due to emission diagnostics says Emco Wheaton. Through technological innovation, Emco Wheaton has made design improvements to tanker truck equipment that better suit the needs of vehicles with Euro 6 engines which in the long term, will have a positive impact on the bottom line.A re-engineered electronic pumping system In the re-design of a re-engineered electronic pump metering system, Emco Wheaton has not only made this equipment more user friendly but also ensured that its cabinet design consolidates a range of equipment in one lightweight, compact cabinet.  Easy to fit and install, the M535 series brings the units down in size, so it can be easily accommodated on a truck chassis where space is now a premium.Bulk fluids transportation In the bulk fluids transportation market, Emco Wheaton engineers have met the space restriction challenge brought about by Euro 6.  By streamlining and making their tank truck equipment more compact and lightweight, Emco Wheaton has ensured that payload capacity is not compromised by the addition of the emissions equipment.www.emcowheaton.com

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Welcome to the next supply chain generation

The hallmark of the XPO Logistics brand is an iconic shade of red worn by all employees. The company’s top three European markets are France, the UK and Spain with operations in Italy and the Netherlands With its acquisition of Norbert Dentressangle last month, XPO Logistics became a top ten global supply chain provider. To emphasis the company’s European capacity and drive for innovation in transport, logistics solutions and global forwarding, this month the company launched a major advertising campaign in Europe based on the theme Welcome to the next supply chain generation. Reinforcing that Norbert Dentressangle is now XPO Logistics, the campaign focuses on the company’s commitment to providing customers with responsive solutions, both locally and globally. “We’re always ready to challenge established models and offer bespoke solutions that contribute to the performance of our customers’ supply chains today and tomorrow,” said Hervé Montjotin, chief executive officer of XPO Logistics in Europe. “Our next generation in Europe is a world-class service team in every respect: entrepreneurial and attuned to customer needs – supply chain experts who utilise the latest technological advances to achieve optimum results for our customers.” Continuing a long-standing partnership as the official carrier of the Tour de France, the first red XPO Logistics trucks have been on display at each of the 2015 Tour’s major stages. The trucks bear the hashtag #WeAreXPO, which has become a symbol of pride among XPO Logistics employees.www.xpo.comwww.norbert-dentressangle.com

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A more diverse energy era for OFTEC

Adrian Lightwood – “The Heating and Renewables Roadshows present an excellent opportunity to showcase OFTEC’s new scopes of registration” The Oil-Fired Technical Association (OFTEC) is to showcase its new scopes of registration at the Heating and Renewables Roadshows which will take place across the UK in September.September Thursday 10th  – Ricoh Coventry Tuesday 15th –   Westpoint Exeter Thursday 17th – FIVE Farnborough Tuesday 22nd –   RHC Edinburgh Thursday 24th –   Event City Manchesterheatingandrenewablesroadshow.co.uk “With oil prices remaining so low and the trend predicted to continue, the future for oil looks positive,” said OFTEC registrations director Adrian Lightwood. “However, OFTEC recognises the increasing role domestic renewable heating technologies will play in the longer term and fully supports the UK’s transition to low carbon heat.  We want to help forward thinking oil installation businesses to expand their customer reach. “The Heating and Renewables Roadshows present an excellent opportunity to showcase OFTEC’s new scopes of registration covering heat pumps, solar thermal systems and solid fuel, with biomass registrations to be launched later this year. “It’s an exciting time for OFTEC as we move into a more energy diverse era. Our aim is to consolidate OFTEC’s position as one of the leading Competent Persons Scheme operators within the heating sector and remain the quality benchmark for installers, servicing technicians and homeowners alike. “Plus, those installers already working in the renewable and solid fuel sectors can also take advantage of the extensive benefits, from self-certification to free technical advice, and value for money OFTEC registration provides.”

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Marine fuel – sulphur spot checks

Sulphur Emission Control Areas (SECAs) currently operate in the grey areas Following the introduction of Sulphur Emission Control Areas in the North and the Baltic Seas on 1st January 2015, the European Maritime Safety Agency has reported on the results of spot checks on vessels. To check compliance with the new EU regulations sulphur content of fuel in 1,458 vessels operating in European waters was tested between January – April 2015.  Ninety vessels (6%) were found to be non-compliant with the new regulations. Reasons for non-compliance included keeping inaccurate records or having incorrect processes, being unable to produce satisfactory fuel samples, and having fuel in tank with a sulphur content above 0.1%. The EU requires member states to conduct spot checks on a minimum of 10% of ships in its waters in 2015, although several states exceed this and test up to 20%. “Being in control of our supply chain from the oil refinery and onwards to the vessel means that our customers can trust us to supply top quality product every time,” said Barry Newton,  managing director of the Geos Group, a specialist physical supplier of marine gas oil which has terminals at Aberdeen, Thames, Blyth, Heysham, Montrose, Great Yarmouth and Lerwick. As of 1 January 2015, vessels operating in EU Sulphur Emission Control Areas, or SECA (including the North Sea, Baltic Sea, North American coastal areas and the US Caribbean Sea), are required by EU law to burn fuel with a maximum sulphur content of 0.1%, a reduction from 1%.www.geosgroup.com

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Merger is ‘culmination of 49 years in the industry’

Creating destination sites – Rontec’s ‘Shop n Drive’ brand sells its own ‘Eat Me’ food range Having merged his two petrol retailing businesses – Snax 24 and Rontec – chairman Gerald Ronson has created one of the UK’s largest roadside retail businesses. Over the last 12 months Rontec has made acquisitions totalling over £100 million pounds. Based on delivery of 250 million litres of fuel per year and with a potential value of £1 billion over five years, the enlarged Rontec group has also entered into a five-year supply deal with BP. Snax 24’s 44 sites have been added to Rontec’s 166 sites creating a business with 210 stations, including two motorway sites, and total combined sales per annum of around £1.5 billion; the majority of the enlarged group’s sites are freehold.  The group, substantially all of which is owned by Gerald Ronson and his family and charitable trusts, will operate under the Rontec name, is based in Watford, and provides employment for 2,500 people nationwide. “Having opened our first petrol station in St Albans in 1966 and developed nearly 1,000 in the UK since, this is a business we’re passionate about,” said chairman Gerald Ronson CBE, who pioneered self-service petrol stations in the UK.rontec.com

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September 14 update

Firstly let’s get the partisan stuff out the way. Portland strongly believes that Britain is “Better Together” and sincerely hopes that Scots vote to stay part of Great Britain on September 18th. This view is partly forged from a lifetime of summer holidays on the West Coast of Scotland (42 summers and counting) but also based on a career that over the years has resulted in many periods “North of the Border”. The politics of independence is the usual ding-dong affair between Nationalists (pro-independence) and Unionists (anti-independence), but when it comes to the economics of independence, the subject of oil is never far away. Over the last 18 months, the Nationalists have done their upmost to paint a picture of an independent Scotland where oil is only part of a balanced economy made up of manufacturing, technology and financial services. But the facts would say otherwise. In 2012, the Oil & Gas industry (crude oil, natural gas and refined products) accounted for over 50% of Scottish exports and without the sector, Scotland would be running an annual budget deficit in excess of £20bn. Scottish Independence and oil are inextricably linked and it is no coincidence that nationalism only really came into the popular Scottish psyche in the early 1970s, when North Sea oil had just been discovered and the slogan “it’s our oil” began to get traction. Back in October 2013, we looked at the downstream oil industry in Scotland (Grangemouth strike, Compulsory Stocking requirements) and that was complicated enough, but the issues around North Sea Oil make the downstream industry look like child’s play. Firstly there is the thorny issue of who the oil belongs to. Depending on which boundary lines are used (fishing regulation, maritime law, UN demarcation or ancient legal frontiers), most experts agree that around 75% of North Sea oil lies in Scottish waters. But this seemingly simple measurement ignores the fact that British government money was used for the initial geological surveys, British tax incentives were used to incentivise oil company investment and British government grants were used to build the offshore logistics structure that runs from Montrose up to Peterhead. Nor does the 75% figure take into account that much of the oil sits off the Shetland Islands and the Shetlanders have a very different view of independence to their mainland counter-parts. They also have used their oil royalties to create a mini-Sovereign fund that they are hardly likely to cede to a newly formed Scottish government (they haven’t yet handed it over to the British government in 30 years of asking!). And finally, when commentators talk about North Sea oil what they really mean is North Sea Oil & Gas and rightly so, because most energy forecasts predict gas demand comfortably outstripping oil over the next 50 years. But when it comes to gas, the tables are turned as circa 60% of North Sea gas sits in English waters. Nonetheless, oil and gas proceeds still sit at the heart of the Nationalist plan and high levels of ongoing tax revenue will be crucial if they are to create the society (some say utopia) that has been set out in their referendum manifesto. Scotland already spends about £3,000 more on its people than any other part of the UK and post-independence (according to campaign promises), that figure is to increase so that public spending per head will be circa 25% more than in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. No wonder the vision presented by the Nationalists is so popular amongst the less well-off! This extra money can only realistically come from the North Sea and here the Nationalists have made some pretty risky assumptions on oil prices. But the truth is that income from oil can never be guaranteed and no prudent government would sensibly rely on roller-coaster oil prices to build a new nation state. In the first 5 years of Scottish Independence, it is totally feasible that the world could be faced with another financial crisis and oil prices could plummet to below $50 per barrel. It has happened in the very recent past – in 1999 oil prices were $15 per barrel, in 2005 they were at $50 and at the end of 2008 oil prices were $35. If these events happened again for anything other than a short period of time, then the economics of Scottish Independence would be utterly blown out of the water. That being said, Portland has long maintained that oil prices will remain high and will even go higher as the world’s population grows. So it would be insincere of us to argue against the pro-independence position on oil prices, however risky they may seem based on historical precedent. What is far more reckless is the Nationalist position on future North Sea production levels. In 2008-09, tax revenue from North Sea Oil was £12bn, but by 2012-13 and with oil prices still high, revenues had dropped to £6bn. All industry predictions show declining production going forward – irrespective of the price of oil – so when the Office for Budget Responsibility (an independent body) predicts tax revenue of £3bn by 2016-17 and the Nationalists predict $7bn, something is amiss. Plus if the oil fields are nearing the end of their working lives, then consideration has to be taken of the massive costs (billions) involved in the environmental remediation and decommissioning of exhausted oil fields – the cost of which one assumes will fall to the newly created Scottish State. That North Sea oil will provide a nascent Scottish state with tremendous economic clout is without doubt. But overwhelming reliance on a declining industry, in a sector as fickle as energy is a dangerous game indeed. And take a perfect storm of low oil prices, reduced production and spiralling decommissioning costs and you can kiss goodbye to increased public spending, let alone the proposed idea of a rapidly endowed Sovereign Wealth fund (a la Norway). Yes, there is enough oil to ensure that an independent Scotland would not be the economic disaster that some have claimed, but equally nor will an independent Scotland be the economic panacea that the Nationalists claim. In fact the pro-independence groups have been disingenuous in presenting the offshore industry as a stable and non-shifting entity – something it is blatantly not. With a fair wind an independent Scotland could sail a clear course to prosperity, but if those winds change and oil prices drop, investment in the North Sea dries up and the moth-balling process begins earlier than expected, then it is neither scare-mongering nor propaganda to suggest that periods of serious economic stagnation will be the result.