Why are crude prices not rising as much as refined products?
- United States government and the OECD hold large emergency reserves of crude oil.
- U.S. has 439.279 mb of commercial crude stocks.*
- U.S. has 415.441 mb of emergency reserves.*
- This equates to almost 1 barrel in emergency reserves for every barrel of commercial stocks.
- IEA and U.S. have released crude reserves in previous wars to moderate prices and ensure supply.
- The global market started 2026 with an oversupply of 2.2 million barrels per day.*
* Sources: US Department of Energy, The Oil Market Journal
What is happening on refined product markets year-to-date?
Jet Kero price +119.68%
Brent Crude price + 52.58%
Diesel B7 price + 30.69%
Petrol E10 price + 13.51%
What is happening on refined product markets 25th February to 6th Mar 2026?
Jet Kero price +87.33%
Brent Crude price + 30.83%
Diesel B7 price + 23.48%
Petrol E10 price + 8.10%
See Chart 1 below
*Jet, diesel and petrol prices are based on Platts North-West Europe cargoes, basis Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp converted into Sterling pence per litre including UK RTFO and taxes, excluding VAT Sources: The Oil Market Journal, S&P Global Energy (Platts), Brent Crude is the front month futures price. Source: ICE, The Oil Market Journal
Fundamentals are different for each product
- Jet kero is mainly bought by airlines and delivered “just in time.” Stocks are held in storage at terminals and at airports. Demand has been rising in the “post-COVID” aviation recovery.
- UK “lost” two refineries in 2025 with the Petroineos and Prax refineries closing adding to the tightness in the European jet kero market.
- In 2025, 37% of European jet imports passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Diesel demand is in long term decline in Europe due to the transition towards electric cars.
- European refineries produce surplus volumes of petrol which were traditionally exported to West Africa. However, with the new 650,000 bpd Dangote refinery now online in Nigeria, this European export market has closed and there is now an oversupply of petrol in Europe.
Jet kero pricing
Jet kero price nearly doubled during the 1st week of March 2026
- Refined product supplies via the Straits of Hormuz have been lost including from the important 550,000 bpd Ras Tanura refinery in Saudi Arabia.
- China has banned refined product exports due to the concerns over Middle Eastern supply – China traditionally exports surplus “barrels” of refined product to Europe.
- Indian refineries are running low in crude oil. India is also an important supplier of “additional barrels” of jet kero to Europe.
- There is extremely strong demand from Asian buyers for jet kero with a tanker u-turning from Europe to Asia with 93 million litres of product.
Jet kero days cover
Day’s cover is the number of days that stocks will last based on current daily demand. It is calculated by taking the total amount of oil in storage and dividing by daily demand.
Typically, oil traders use the weekly data for United States as a “proxy” for the rest of the developed world.
Early-March, the United States had days cover of:
Crude 43.02 days
Diesel 32.66 days
Petrol 30.5 days
Jet 24.5 days
The low level of jet “days cover” means the price for jet fuel is more exposed
HVO… the low emission, non-OPEC, liquid fuel alternative to Jet Kero
In stark contrast, HVO prices are up just 0.73% in 2026
See Chart 2 below
All data and analysis supplied by The Oil Market Journal
Oil prices, news and analysis on the Rotterdam spot market and the oil futures markets in London and New York.
To find out more: +44 (0) 28 6632 9999 support@the-omj.com www.the-omj.com
