With more than 30 years’ experience across Mobil, BP, Certas and Essar, Ramsay MacDonald has spent his career immersed in the realities of downstream fuel, retail operations and supply chains.
Today, working with Evenlode Roadside, he brings a grounded, data-led perspective to the transition towards low-carbon energy. We spoke to Ramsay about the trajectory from fossil fuels to electricity and why, rather than a sudden switch, liquid fuel distributors must prepare for a future of mixed energy systems.
Liquid fuel demand: A longer than expected tail
Only a few years ago, Ramsay expected petrol and diesel demand to start dipping significantly by the end of this decade. That outlook has changed. “I now think we could easily see another ten years of relatively constant demand and a more gradual decline after that for another five to ten years.”
Key reasons include:
HGV dominance of diesel, with no economic alternative yet in sight.
- Vehicle longevity: cars and vans last 10–20 years, so even the final ICE sale creates a decade of downstream demand.
- Consumer hesitation: “The public hasn’t fallen completely in love with EVs,” he says. People still view ICE vehicles as more dependable, quicker to refuel and cheaper to operate.
- Possible last-minute surges in ICE purchases as deadlines approach – and the possibility that some deadlines may shift.
Geopolitics also plays a role. The Ukraine war and the shock of reducing reliance on Russian hydrocarbons have reshaped energy flows, adding uncertainty to timelines for fossil fuel displacement.
Which sectors electrify first?
Passenger cars are already transitioning fastest, helped by incentives such as home-charger installations and reduced benefit-in-kind rates for company car drivers. For local commuters with home chargers, EVs are financially compelling: “With an off-peak deal of around 7.5p/kWh, you’re filling your vehicle for less than a fiver.”
But take-up varies widely by journey profile and housing type. Long-distance drivers – even in high-adoption markets like Norway – often retain an ICE vehicle for extended trips.
And when it comes to heavier vehicles, the economics deteriorate sharply. “The larger the vehicle, the less cost-effective electrification becomes,” Ramsay says. “Heavier payloads will remain dependent on liquid fuels the longest.”
Evenlode’s own modelling supports this: the Edison platform models EV uptake and home-charging potential by postcode, helping operators understand how different neighbourhoods might shift over time. This is not only a retail tool – the modelling also helps liquid fuel distributors anticipate where demand erosion may (or may not) happen geographically.
EVs are here to stay – but momentum is uneven
“EVs are here to stay,” Ramsay says confidently. Improvements in battery life, charging speeds and charger reliability are all strengthening the case for electric cars, particularly for drivers with access to home charging. But he is quick to add nuance: “I sense the momentum has slowed.”
Stagnant economies, a shifting political landscape and the retreat of some OEMs from overly ambitious EV targets have all created uncertainty. And Europe faces deeper practical challenges.
Ramsay highlights two in particular:
1. Grid connections are not keeping up.
“Both the price and the time to get available power connected is a huge challenge,” he notes. Red tape, rewiring constraints, and the instability created by a rising share of renewables all compound the issue. The UK’s high electricity prices – the highest in Europe, he observes – further slow adoption.
2. No viable EV solution for heavy goods transport.
“We still don’t have a proven EV solution for HGVs,” he says. Hydrogen frequently appears in policy discussions, “but I’m not sure that – even if readily available – it will ever be economic.”
The result? A transition that is real and accelerating, but uneven, sector-dependent and constrained by infrastructure realities.
Electrification challenges: It’s not just about chargers
When asked what is slowing EV adoption, Ramsay is unequivocal: “The bottlenecks are multiple – infrastructure, grid capacity and consumer behaviour.”
Despite more than 75,000 public EV chargers in the UK (far more than its 8,300 petrol stations), prices vary significantly – 30p to 80p/kWh publicly, versus <10p at home. And the user experience is inconsistent.
Drawing on personal experience, he recounts chargers not working, long waits, and even cable theft: “Fourteen of the sixteen cables at a charging station had been stolen.” This makes EV travel less spontaneous, more planned – and heightens range anxiety.
Other challenges include:
- Grid costs that can amount to one-third of the cost of building an EV hub.
- Multi-year delays to secure sufficient power for high-speed charging.
- The misconception that ultra-fast chargers automatically improve outcomes – “it’s actually the car that determines the speed of charge.”
- Slow pathways to profitability: “It can take four years for a charging station to hit 15% utilisation and become profitable.”
- Broader energy security concerns, as ageing nuclear facilities exit the grid and gas remains the fallback.
This has implications far beyond retail: liquid fuel distributors, many of whom operate depots or logistics yards, face the same constraints if considering electrification of any aspect of their own fleets or facilities.
Where are the opportunities for distributors?
While much of the electrification narrative focuses on retail charging, Ramsay sees wider opportunities for liquid fuel distributors:
- Battery energy storage systems (BESS) “With solar farms and battery storage needing space, some distributors are well placed to host or support these assets.”
- Private-wire arrangements There are emerging opportunities to connect renewable generation to local businesses directly.
- Retail-adjacent diversification Although cautious not to over-emphasise retail, Ramsay notes that distributors’ rich customer data could be valuable, enabling them to explore adjacent sectors. Car and van washing, he says, is experiencing strong resurgence, after years of decline.
“Locker storage and ‘click and collect’ services might also be considered,” he adds.
EV charging – selectively
Not everywhere is suitable, but some distributor sites could serve cars or even larger vehicles depending on space, opening hours and grid availability. Evenlode’s Edison platform can help assess potential demand.
Partnerships with charge-point operators or energy retailers are less essential than awareness: “It’s important to know what is changing, but I’m not sure partnerships are critical at this stage.”
Fossil fuels: A role in key sectors but for how long?
Ramsay is clear-eyed about where hydrocarbons will remain indispensable: aviation, marine and freight. “These will be the hardest to wean off fossil fuels,” he says.
Agriculture may be different, with some believing battery weight could even be advantageous for certain equipment, and quarrying is already exploring electrification.
But overall, diesel will retain a vital role in several sectors well into the 2030s and 2040s.
Government policy remains a major determinant of pace. OEMs have already adjusted production in line with emissions targets, reducing the availability of petrol and diesel models. If governments align with industry to balance environmental goals with economic viability, the transition will be steadier and more manageable.
Renewable liquid fuels: Underused, undervalued, and essential
When asked where renewable liquid fuels fit into the picture, Ramsay is unequivocal: they deserve far higher priority.
“Liquid fuels are incredibly practical in terms of power-to-weight and ease of use. Given the strain on national grids, the cost of electrification, and challenges in generation, renewable liquid fuels should be a far bigger part of the energy strategy.”
He highlights several points:
- The closure of the Grangemouth and Lindsey refineries means the UK is importing more diesel, strengthening the case for domestically produced alternatives like HVO.
- HVO and biofuels allow minimal change to operational practices, retaining fast fuelling and vehicle compatibility.
- Synthetic fuels show promise but must be proven at scale – and industry must lobby government to include them meaningfully in policy pathways.
For distributors considering diversification, his advice is simple:
“Don’t bury your head in the sand. Listen to your customers. Keep a healthy interest in what’s happening, and don’t rush – but don’t ignore it either.”
Evenlode’s EV demand modelling: Bringing clarity to investment
One of Evenlode’s most powerful contributions to the transition is its EV-demand modelling, developed with Cenex. Ramsay explains the challenge:
“With EVs growing, providing the right types of chargers, in the right locations, with the right amenities is incredibly difficult.”
Existing roadside sites have advantages – presence, location, amenities – but owners need to know whether demand will justify investment. Edison addresses this by combining:
- Local vehicle-pool data
- Driver behaviour patterns and diversion likelihood
- Competition from other charging providers
- Ten-year forecasts of kWh sales, charger mix and financial viability
Crucially, Ramsay emphasises that the model is technology-neutral:
“If a site has limited potential for EV, that is the result the model gives. We’re independent – not tied to operators or equipment suppliers – so the aim is purely to help owners make informed decisions.”
What has surprised him most?
“There are good opportunities all over the country,” he says. While London sees high demand, it also sees heavy competition. Some northern sites, with lower grid connection costs, are equally attractive. And driver behaviour – how far they’ll travel, how long they’ll dwell – varies widely. “You can’t assume anything before modelling.”
For distributors, the implications are significant: Edison can help them understand where electrification will genuinely displace liquid fuel demand and where diesel, HVO or other fuels will remain in greater demand.
Preparing for the 2030s: What distributors must do now
Ramsay’s advice for distributors centres on three themes:
1. Know your customers better than ever.
“Understand what your key volume customers are planning. Strengthen your supply position. Ensure you have a robust interruption plan – especially with fewer refineries.”
2. Build a data-driven business.
“Daily access to the right data is essential. Track sales, margins, costs, profitability per customer. Don’t underestimate cyber security.”
3. Invest in people and resilience.
“Bring the next generation through. Train staff well. Stay positive. Change is an opportunity.”
He emphasises the sector’s history of resilience and adaptability – qualities that will be as essential in the next decade as they were in the last.
Looking ahead: A balanced, practical transition
Businesses will continue investing in liquid fuels even as electrification grows, Ramsay suggests. Many forecourt clients are upgrading tanks, pumps and infrastructure while also assessing EV opportunities with Edison. “There are still good returns in liquid fuels,” Ramsay says, “and payback on upgrades can be quick, especially when paired with data-led decisions.”
The future, then, is not either/or, but both as Ramsay reflects: “Don’t be too dependent on any one supplier or customer. Expect the unexpected.” And prepare for a world where diesel, HVO, biofuels, electricity and synthetic fuels coexist, each serving different sectors.
For distributors, that means embracing transition without abandoning the strengths that have long made the industry resilient: operational excellence, customer relationships, and informed investment.
Exhorting the industry to “keep positive”, Ramsay concludes: “The sector has always faced challenges head on and with resilience. Change is an opportunity.”
