Unfortunately, this winter is going to be particularly difficult with the backdrop of a persistent cost of living crisis. The approach people take will give us a key insight into whether the government’s decarbonisation plans will work in practice, not just in policy papers and consultations.
Consumer behaviour in winter
When it comes to replacing or upgrading a heating system, the reality is many people do not plan in advance. A new boiler is often a distress purchase when the old system stops working during winter when it’s forced to work its hardest. At this point, people want a solution that is as quick and affordable as possible. That’s why a straightforward boiler replacement is so often chosen, in preference to a whole new setup such as a heat pump.
Switching to a heat pump is a significant decision and usually a one-way route. Building Regulations in England prevent a household from reverting to a liquid fuel boiler once a heat pump has been installed. It’s therefore a decision that needs careful consideration – not one that can be made in a rush when there is a broken boiler and a cold home.
In a perfect world, decisions would be made during summer with more time and options. However, in the current economic climate, most people do not have this luxury. This is important context in decarbonisation discussions. The government’s current approach for households to switch to a heat pump is often discussed in a vacuum, ignoring consumer behaviour. For decarbonisation policies to be successful, they have to recognise what happens in the real world.
Solutions for community buildings
The decarbonisation challenge doesn’t just apply to homes. Village halls, churches and pubs also see heavy use over winter. In rural communities, these buildings are often older with limited insulation. They may also be listed or have other limitations on adaptations. More importantly, they have very small budgets and are typically run by volunteers or small committees. A substantial financial cost and administrative burden make it unrealistic for these buildings to switch to an alternative heating system.
That’s why, as we’ve seen in Kehelland as part of the demonstration project, a drop-in renewable liquid fuel such as HVO is the ideal solution. It enables them to cut their emissions within the system they already rely on, with no disruption and no significant upfront cost. Keeping the village hall, church or local pub open and affordably heated through winter is vital. They are community spaces with many used for people to escape their cold home. Any decarbonisation strategy needs to ensure that the solutions put forward are viable for these buildings too, not just homes.
A difficult winter ahead
There’s no getting away from the fact that this winter is going to be difficult. With household finances already tight, the ongoing Middle East conflict has further driven up food and energy prices. The reality is households and businesses will be operating on very tight budgets this winter.
That’s why, right now, the main focus must be on helping people keep warm and minimising their expenditure, rather than trying to drive forward a decarbonisation agenda purely based on technology. Even if you tried, consumer behaviour would hold back any chance of significant progress. Any funding government and households have should be prioritised where it’s most needed – insulation, boiler servicing, draught proofing and heating support payments.
Maximising carbon reduction over winter
That’s not to say that we should completely abandon decarbonisation over winter. The cold months are naturally when emissions from heating are at their highest with increased usage. It’s therefore the biggest opportunity during the year to drastically reduce emissions. But we need to be pragmatic and recognise the challenging situation we find ourselves in.
This winter, the UK’s 1.7 million oil heated homes will be using kerosene. A large-scale switch to heat pumps to cut emissions is unrealistic due to the high upfront cost and disruption we have discussed. However, there is another approach
Switching the fuel in an existing boiler can deliver immediate carbon savings. Households won’t notice any changes day-to-day as a 20% HVO blend works in the existing boiler without modification. This completely removes any upfront cost, keeps households warm and drastically reduces carbon emissions. What’s needed is for the government to implement policy support to make this fuel widely available at an affordable price. Unfortunately, every year so far, the government has missed the opportunity to take action.
Decarbonisation policy cannot ignore the way people behave and how the heating market operates during winter. That’s why it’s the real test of whether proposed solutions will succeed. It’s becoming increasingly clear that net zero policies need to prioritise minimising upfront cost and disruption for the household. Let’s hope we’re not having the same conversation this time next year.
Malcolm Farrow, director of marketing and external affairs at OFTEC.
Image credit: OFTEC
